The Future Unemployment Rate

John Carney of Breitbart is back post-Q2 GDP release and it’d be a stretch to say he’s optimistic about the economy. If you think the country is in a recession, the FED would point you to our outstanding labor market that says otherwise, right? Carney explains the situation is much more complex than that. The unemployment rate is sturdy at 3.5%, however, the country is still seeing frequent labor shortages and profit losses that might just need a few months to catch up. When the GDP decreases but the unemployment rate is this high, Carney says we call this a “stagflation”, and notes that eventually, the unemployment rate is likely to go up a few percentage points in the coming year.